Steady progress in June; north and central regions to get good pre-showers
While it hit the national capital two days before schedule, its entry into the financial capital is two weeks late, the Met office said.
Though early days, meteorologists point towards a neutral La Nina during the initial phase of the four-month monsoon season this year that starts from June. If this holds true, by the time the rains hit the mainland, it could mean there would be one less reason to worry about the prospects of the monsoon this year. Weathermen said making any accurate prediction of how El Nino will behave and what impact it can have on the progress and distribution of rains is difficult to say at this point. A clear picture will emerge around late May or early June.
The Santacruz weather station in the suburbs recorded 129.4 mm rain between 8:30 am and 5:30 pm on Thursday. The Colaba weather bureau in Island City reported 18.8 mm rain during the same period.
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A below-normal monsoon is likely to drag down the food output with India's agricultural GDP growth likely to slump to 0.8 pc in the current fiscal, says a report by the Japanese brokerage firm Nomura.
The southwest monsoon might finally start withdrawing from parts of North-West India over the next three days, signaling the end of its four-month journey over the country that started in June, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. However, though the retreat might begin from next week, the rains might not descend quickly, as the met department predicted fresh spells of rains in Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and east MP on September 21-22 and over Odisha, Coastal areas north Andhra Pradesh and Gangetic West Bengal on September 19-21. "Due to anti-cyclonic flows over northwest India at lower tropospheric levels, dry weather is very likely over west Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi during the next five days. "Hence conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from parts of northwest India during next three days," the IMD said.
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While weather forecasters remain divided on how the monsoons will play out in India over the next few months, analysts believe the news at the current juncture - at best - can trigger a knee-jerk reaction in the markets. They believe it is too early to say whether the sub-par monsoon on account of El Nino can seriously dent the market sentiment in the short-to-medium term. "These are just initial forecasts and we will have another round / status update from the weather forecasters a month down the line.
The southwest monsoon is set to make its exit in style, bringing rains to the parched parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, as weather forecasters have picked up signs of formation of a cyclonic circulation over Bay of Bengal. Addressing a press conference in New Delhi, India Meteorological Department (IMD) director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra on Thursday junked last week's forecast of early withdrawal of southwest monsoon and announced the extended stay of the seasonal showers. "Even though we expected early withdrawal of the southwest monsoon, a cyclonic circulation over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal will shift the monsoon trough southwards around September 7.
Fada estimates that global supply chain headwinds like scarce availability of rare earth elements for electric vehicle components and geopolitical tensions may affect urban consumer sentiment in June as well.
The slow progress of the south-west monsoon has led to overall deficiency of rains by 22 per cent over the last fortnight, the meteorological department on Wednesday said.
The India meteorological department said another western disturbance is likely to bring storms and rain to the northern plains, including Delhi, over the next few days.
In Rajasthan, 13 deaths related to rain and storm were reported over the last two days while at least 12 people were killed due to lightning strikes in Jharkhand during the same period, officials said.
The flooding in Kerala, Karnataka and Maharashtra has left people without homes and brought about destruction worth crores.
Weather scientists attribute the early onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala to the influence of the remnants of cyclone Asani that triggered the cross-equatorial flow, a key factor for the seasonal rains.
Above-normal heatwave days are predicted in most parts of central, east and northwest India during this period.
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Bikers pushing their two-wheelers that were stuck and pedestrians struggling to navigate through knee-deep water was a common sight in some places.
Temperatures remained above 45 degrees Celsius in large parts of Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh and Uttar Pradesh, affecting daily life as many chose to remain indoors in the afternoon.
However, flight operations at the Mumbai airport were not impacted due to rains, an airport official said.
The IMD said that there has been an increase in the rainfall activity in Kerala and monsoon could hit the state anytime now.
Skymet said the monsoon this year could be 100 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus and minus 5 per cent.
Many years during which monsoons were poor saw high returns, while normal or excess rainfall has also coincided with poor calendar year gains.
A countrywide truckers strike has hit India's diesel sales and oil companies could be forced to cut refinery runs and reduce imports if the protest continues, industry officials said on Wednesday.
Monsoon will be insufficient this year.
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Indian farmers depend on June-September monsoon rains, as half of the country's farmland lacks irrigation facilities.
'We are not saying we are going to face a drought... We are a doing and performing government. A contingency plan is being prepared,' Science Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan tells Rediff.com
It also said the cheetahs will be allowed to move out of KNP and will not necessarily be "recaptured unless they venture into areas where they are in significant danger".
Waterlogging has been reported in several parts of city.
The country received 14 mm rainfall from June 1-6 as against 19.9 mm, the normal.
India received 41 per cent more rainfall than normal from October 1-21 with Uttarakhand alone recording more than five times its normal precipitation, IMD data showed on Thursday.
The rain ebbed in some places in north India and pelted down in others on Tuesday, with at least seven more people dead and hundreds stranded as raging waters gushed through villages, towns and fields -- from the desert state of Rajasthan to the hills of Himachal Pradesh.
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Waterlogging was reported in Andheri, Kurla, Ghatkopar, Chembur and some other places.
Near 40 people including children died due to heavy monsoon rains and related accidents in Pakistan, a police official said on Thursday. Most of the people have died because of the roof collapsing incidents in the largest province in Punjab as a result of continuous heavy rains since Wednesday night.
Rain deficiency in eastern and western Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Assam and Meghalaya is 20-46 per cent less than normal as of June 17.
With sales of cooling products turning out dismal this summer due to unseasonal rains, the stocks of related companies are now off their March highs. Shares of fan and air conditioner makers such as Voltas, Symphony, Orient Electric, Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning and Crompton Greaves are down 5-23 per cent since March when the summer season saw a firm onset. In comparison, the BSE Sensex index is up 10 per cent.
The RBI chief was speaking to researchers at an analyst call.
